Should Astana reassess Nibali’s race program?

Vicenzo Nibali left Liquigas-Cannondale (now Cannondale Pro Cycling Team) partly because he was driven to win his home Tour – Giro d’Italia.  Astana offered him the team leadership and chance to wear the ‘Maglia Rosa’.  It was not surprising that Nibali jumped at the opportunity as the presence of team captain, Ivan Basso, at Liquigas- Cannondale was clearly inhibiting his chances. 

Nibali had the prefect race preparation for the Giro and was a strong favourite even with 2012 Tour de France winner, Bradley Wiggins, and 2012 Giro d’Italia winner, Ryder Hesjedal, vying for the same honours.  He won the key lead up race – the Giro del Trentino, his second major stage race for the season after winning the Tirreno-Adriatico in March.

It was therefore not surprising that as the riders rode into Brescia on the last stage, it was Nibali wearing the ‘Maglia Rosa’.  The opposition had no answer to him.  He won the Stage 18 individual time trial to Polsa and powered away from this opponents in appalling weather conditions during Stage 20.  He also would have won Stage 14, but for an informal agreement with Mauro Santambrigio to help him pierce the opposition and break loose from Evans.  It was an extraordinary performance by Nibali. 

Nibali lifting the Giro trophy

We understand that Nibali will now take a break before re-commencing training to have another tilt at the Vuelta a España.  Nibali deserves a rest.  He has already raced around 46 days in 2013, traversing the world from Argentina, to Oman, back to Italy, before heading to Belgium and back again. 

But after winning the Giro so convincingly, I am sure Nibali must be reconsidering his race program to attempt the Giro-Tour de France double – a feat that has not been achieved since 1998 when compatriot, Marco ‘il pirata’ Pantini won it.  

Under normal conditions, Giro-Tour de France double would probably be unattainable, but 2013 is different.  Snowfalls left the Gavia and Stelvio mountain passes un-raceable as the organisers cancelled Stage 19.   While first three climbs of Stage 20 - the Costalunga, San Pellegrino, and Giau – were removed as inclement weather conditions made them too dangerous to descend.  Nibali therefore escaped the most punishing mountain passes that would have totally drained his energy levels.  The other advantage that Nibali has over his rivals is he now has three weeks of racing in his legs.  Only Evans can match that race fitness and Wiggins/Hesjedal retiring and Froome/Contador choosing different race programs. 

Astana do not have many potential general classification winners in their squad for the Tour.  Nibali is healthy.  He is in good form.  Surely these are the two characteristics that form the basis of winning the Giro-Tour de France double.  He also has the backing of a strong team.  A team that is capable of matching Team Sky. 

Astana should allow Nibali to give the Giro-Tour double a crack and make him team captain. 

Nibali may just prove that it is possible to win the double in an era that is not drug fuelled like the 1990s.

Did BMC choose their leader for the Tour de France too early?

Until the start of the Giro d’Italia three weeks ago in Napoli, there were significant speculation about who should be the team leader for BMC at the 2013 Tour de France.  Cadel Evans, the nature choice, struggled through his early races. He could not even rely on one of race strengths – the time trial – to lift his position on the general classification. Whereas, young lieutenant, Tejay van Garderen, was looking more and more like the anointed one with strong performances at Critérium International and Paris to Nice: the race to the Sun.

Five weeks from the start of the Giro, Evans announced to La Gazzetta dello Sport that he would be at the start line in Napoli.  "I’m going to ride the Giro. And I want to make it clear, I won’t be riding it for training but to get back to my best level” he told La Gazzetta dello Sport.  

Van Garderen must have had mixed feeling about this news - was Evans at the age of 36 years old capable of performing at the highest level in two grand tours or was it team management gently suggesting that Evans should focus on the Giro and leave the Tour de France to van Garderen? 

Selecting Evans to race at the Giro was a masterstroke.  By the fourth stage, Evans had moved into the top 10 on the general classification. Four stages later, Evans he was sitting in second spot, only 29 seconds behind Vincenzo Nibali.  He was in striking distance to wearing the maglia rosa. 

But it all started to unravel after Stage 10.  Cadel grip on second place was waning.  The distance between him and Nibali had widened.  Nibali and ex-teammate, Mauro Santambrigio (Vini Fantini), exposed a potential weakness in Evans with a classic one-two combined effort to the top of Bardonecchia.

Even with the time distance between Nibali and Evans widening, BMC’s team president Jim Ochowicz had full confidence in Evans.  Rupert Guinness (Fairfax Media) revealed that Ochowicz was favouring Evans for the Tour de France at the start of the 17th stage of the Giro from Caravaggio to Vicenza.  This was confirmed overnight in Cyclingnews when Ochowicz said “his team will enter the race with a fixed hierarchy - Cadel Evans as leader and Tejay van Garderen as his chief lieutenant”.

The leadership tension at BMC has filled many newspaper columns and internet pages over the last three months.  With van Garderen eventually winning the Tour of California, there was little chance that media speculation was going to decline without a strong statement by the BMC management. 

But did Ochowicz reveal his team selection too early?  

The moment that Ochowicz indicated Evans had ‘rock-solid leadership for the Tour on BMC’, cracks started to appear. Evans lost significant time during the second time trial from Mori to Polsa.  He came in 25^th place, 2 minutes and 36 seconds on Nibali.  Two stages later, Evans could not compete with Nibali, Uran or Scarponi on the final climb to Tre Cime di Lavarado, losing further time and lost his second spot on the podium. 

Evans’ performance at the Giro exceeded everyone’s expectations.  While we all knew he would be a top 10 contender, no-one expected him to secure a podium spot.   But should be the leader of BMC at the Tour de France?

Evan’s performance at the Giro confirmed two things – his time trialling abilities are not at the same standard as they were in 2011 and his dogged tenacity in the mountains is waning, leaving him exposed if he does not have team support.  

Whereas van Garderen showed in the 2012 edition of the Tour de France and at this year’s Tour of California that he has the ability to climb without team assistance.  He may be the only answer that BMC has to the Froome, Porte Wiggins Team Sky juggernaut when it comes to town.  

Ochowicz strong words of support for Evans before the Stage 17 start effectively meant that the BMC team leader could only be Evans.  If Ochowicz waited another 72 hours to see Evans’ campaign falter, we may have seen BMC select another team leader.  

Only time will provide the answer to this statement.