What to expect from the teams at the Giro – Part 1

The 2012 Giro d’Italia starts in less than three day.  After an all Italian affair in 2011 to celebrate the 150^th anniversary of the unification of Italy (except for a brief interlude to Austria), the Giro is leaving the safety of Italy and the crazy ‘tifosi’ to start in Henning, Denmark.  After three stages, the Giro will be back in Italy.

So what can we expect from the teams in this year’s Giro?

I wonder if the Danes will have the same type of shop decorations for the Giro like in Spilembergo.

Lampre-ISD

Lampre is taking two captains to the Giro, with Michele Scarponi, the defending champion, and Damiano Cunego, the Little Prince.  The Giro organisers will hand the 2011 Pink jersey to Scarponi after the winner, Alberto Contador was stripped of the title for doping violation.  This may only be symbolic, but it will add fire to belly of the Scarponi to ensure that he is on the winner’s podium in Milan.

I am expecting the winner to come from the Lampre camp again in 2012.  Cunego is in great form and showed during the Giro del Trentino that he is capable of getting over the big climbs.  The time trials will be a problems.  But there are not of the length where Cunego will lose a bag full of time. 

Scarponi has not shown his early form that marked 2011.  But I am expecting him to hit his straps once the Giro gets to the first high mountains stage at Cervinia.

Two other riders to watch out for are Adriano Malori and Diego Ulissi.  Ulissi won his first Stage of the giro in 2011 after a push-fest with Giovanni Visconti.  12 months on, his hunger for another stage win may be enough to get him over the line.  Malori, the Italian National time trial champ, will be targeting Stage 1 or Stage 21 individual time trials.  The 30km effort in Milan may just be too tough for him.  Watch out for him in Henning.  

Prediction: 3 Stage wins and Giro champ. 

AGR2 La Mondiale

Frenchman John Gadret was an absolute revelation at the 2011.  One of the few riders to take it to Contador.  The Frenchman loves the Giro and is a capable climber, so I am expecting another strong performance from him in 2011.  

Is his love for the Giro enough to win? No.  Can he match his third place in 2012? No. Not expecting to see him replicate his 2011 form in 2012.  No French success in 2012.  

But Manuel Belletti, the Italian sprinter will be looking to nab a stage victory.  Unfortunately, I just do not see that AGR2 has the team or train to get Belletti to the finish line first.  

Prediction: Zero stage wins.

Androni Giocattoli

Androni is bringing a raft of climbers to the Giro in the hope of matching the performance of 2011.  Who can forget Jose Rugano effort on the Grossglockner climb.  His assistance he gave to Contador guaranteed the stage victory.  He was also belatedly awarded Stage 9 (Enta) after the disqualification of Contador. 

In addition for the little Venezulean, Androni is also taking Jose Serpa and Emmanuele Sella. But Sella’s form has never returned to the heights of 2007-08 when he was busted for CERA. 

Outside these three climbers, I expect the Androni riders to just make up the numbers in the flat stages.

Prediction: 1-2 Stage wins.  All in Italy. 

Astana

Super domestique Paolo Tiralongo secured his first giro stage win in 2011.  Handed to him on a platter by Contador in recognition of all his hard work when Contador was at Astana.  Not a bad gift, but do not expect any freebies in 2012.  

Tiralongo will be doing a lot of the grunt work to get Krueziger to the line.  Krueziger left Liquigas but there was just no room in the team with Basso and Nibali.  In search of greener pastures, Krueziger landed at Astana. But his time at Astana has been disappointing at best.  I do not think that his current form is at the level shown in 2011, although he did spend some time in the white jersey. 

Kreuziger’s form at the Giro del Trentino suggests he will not be on the podium come Milan.  But I expect to see him in the top 10.  Can’t see him winning a stage either. 

Do not see many another chances in Astana for a stage win either.

Prediction: 0 Stage win, Top 10 finisher. 

BMC Racing Team

Thor Hushovd certainly did not suffer from the dreaded hoodoo of the rainbow colours, but his switch to BMC has not gone well.  He must be hoping to turn his form around at the Giro.  Does he have the form to win a stage? Questionable.  Does he have the pedigree? Definitely.  I would not be surprised if he wins one of the stages in Denmark. 

The other big hopes for a stage win will be Taylor Phinney and Marco Pinotti.  With no Wiggins or David Millar, I expect that either Phinney or Pinotti will target Stage 1 in Henning.  Phinney is quicker than Pinotti, but it will be tough for the Italian to give up the first road stage in Pink.  The quid pro quo may be a BMC onslaught in the team time trial in Verona where they will let Pinotti cross the line first.  Verona, a passionate city, it would only be fitting for an Italian to win. 

And then there is the Ballan.  His debut Giro, which is surprising given his age.  Ballan has had a brilliant spring classics and he also recently won the Giro della Toscana.  He will be hungry for a stage victory.  Watch out for Ballan once the Giro reaches the middle of Italy in week 2. 

BMC have some solid domestiques in Santaromita and Santambrogio.  They will spend some time guiding the peloton after a few breakaways to ensure Ballan gets that victory.  

Prediction: 3-4 stage wins

Colnago-CSF Inox

At the 2012 Giro del Trentino, Dom Pozzovino absolutely blew the competition away on the huge mountain climbs.  His effort on Passo Veleno was stuff of legends.  If he did not burn himself out, I expect Pozzovino to win one of the high mountain stages.  He may even win the Maglia Azzurra as the best climber.  Either way, watch out for this mountain goat. 

Sacho Modolo is their sprinting hope.  Fresh for victory in Stage 6 of the Tour of Turkey, Modolo knows how to get his way to the front at the right time.  Watch out for at least one victory. 

While Colnago is not a big team, watch out for Enrico Battaglin.  While no victories yet in 2012, he secured a fine 3^rd place in the Grand Prix de Lugano. While he will be expected to support Modolo, do not be surprised if Battaglin gets into a breakaway that stays away.  He must be one of the favourites for the white jersey.  

Prediction : 2 stage victories, Maglia Azzurra

Euskaltel-Euskadi

Who can forget Igor Anton solo victory on Monte Zoncolan.  Even as the rain came down, the crowd was mesmerised byis climbing ability.  Euskaltel was able to back up the next day to win stage 15 (Gardeccia – Val di Fassa) with Mikel Nieve.

Unfortunately, in 2012 there is no Igor Anton.  But Nieve is backing up for another stage victory.  Will it come.  I do not think so.  While you can never discount the climbing abilities of Euskaltel, I am predicting a baron time for the boys in Orange at the 2012 Giro.

Prediction: 0 stage wins

Farnese Vini-Selle Italia

The fluo giallo team with the best kit in the Giro in 2012.  Will the team be able to replicate 2011, where they won a stage (Oscar Gatto – Sapri to Tropea) to the surprise of Contador, and were found in most of the breakaways.

Farnese replaced Visconti with Pozzato in 2012.  Pozzato form was pretty good, until a knee injury has kept him in cotton wool over the last couple of weeks until victory at the GP Industria & Artigianato – Larciano last week.  He has had plenty of time to style his hair and work on his tan. No Giro success for Pozzato.

Gatto is a hot prospect for a stage win.  Form has been good.  He finished third in the Strade Bianche earlier this year.  

Farnese are taking a young team to the Giro.  One to watch will be Andrea Guardini.  He broke Graeme Brown all time stage wins at the Tour of Langkawi.  He struggled at the Tour of Turkey to get in the right positions.  In his first giro, I am not expecting Guardini to get his first stage win.  But he might just surprise a few of the established sprinters like Tyler Farrer.  

Prediction: 1 Stage win. 

More tomorrow.